X-bit labs

Where going, Intel?

Category: Editorial

by Victor Kartunov

[ 11/23/2003 | 11:46 PM ]

Today we decided to analyze the situation in the desktop processor market and to figure out what Intel should actually do in this case, especially taking into account the new 64bit AMD CPUs and the recently discovered problems with the upcoming Prescott.

Table of contents:

• Market Today
  
• More Speed!
  
• 64 bit for the Masses
  
• It’s Hot, Man! Awfully Hot!
  
• PCI Express, or Farewell, PCI!
  
• DDR-II
  
• Conclusion
  

Inexorability and ruthlessness are the qualities
our potential enemy should recognize and feel!

Ascribed to Otto von Bismarck

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Humankind has been deeply involved into one game for the last few thousand of years. We are all trying to guess the future. Games like chess, cards or even pinball are all less exciting than an attempt at forecast of this or that situation. We, at X-bit Labs, are also trying to keep up with the general trend by exposing to you our ideas and opinions about what we are going to see in the computer market, particularly, in the CPU market. Let me make a small reservation from the start, though. I am not into divination or any shaman practices and I have nothing to do with any corporative classified documents and I do not pretend to be absolutely right in all I’m going to say. This article originated from our examination of the current market situation, from various rumors and info garnered around the Internet as well as from my personal experience in the field. The task I set to myself is unrewarding: an attempt to foresee where to and how Intel’s processors are going to evolve. I’ll also cover some related matters. I’m not sure what’s going to become of this attempt. Anyway, it’s worth trying. After all the ballyhoo from the marketing departments of both the processor-making giants, it’s time I put my own thoughts in order.

Market Today

First, let’s try to summarize the features of the today’s CPU market. Intel has the Pentium 4 processor as the current product line, while AMD is transitioning to the new-gen processors, Athlon 64 and Athlon FX (they are both based on the K8 core). The topmost model from Intel is the Pentium 4 XE 3.2GHz. The distinguishing trait of this Pentium is its 2MB L3 cache. AMD also has such an extreme model, Athlon FX. Curiously enough, both manufacturers cooked up their top-end processor models by slightly redesigning their own server processors. The problem was solved with minimal means.

But what was the problem actually? My opinion is that the modern computer market is tending to diversify. It is splitting into several adjacent segments, with a niche product offered for each of the segments. I won’t discuss whether this diversification is natural or artificial, but both Intel and AMD behave this way. In other words, this is a trend, not just a whim of a single corporation. The concept of the “universal PC” seems to require rethinking. No one refuses the universality (yet?), but the customers are getting ever harder to satisfy. A big share of users doesn’t seem willing to pay for the next round of the CPU performance race. Moreover, there has been formed some computer concepts that don’t put the performance into the spotlight. For example, there’s the “office PC”. It has been a while now that office computers are mostly equipped with junior CPU models available at the moment. It’s natural the buyers of such machines will be offered peripherals and components of the same class – not only in frequency (performance), but also in positioning, accessories and the brand name. Take Celeron or Duron series, very popular nowadays. These processors have shown quite an acceptable performance for modest money and gained popularity among the customers.

We witness a contrary, but anyway much similar situation at the other end of the price scale. A category of users has formed who buy electronics for “image purposes”. Such electronic devices require exclusiveness rather than performance (although it also should be “up to the mark”). In other words, such people are ready to pay for their devices being different from what we usually see in shops. Of course, each corporation tries to lure away this category of customers. Such people may not be millionaires, but they do spend high (and often extremely high) sums for their computer systems. And they are the people the new “extreme” processors from Intel and AMD have been made for.