AMD has had a number of problems with its first 64-bit chips. Not all the problems are solved now, but we can be confident in the fact that the Sunnyvale, California-based chipmaker will start to ramp up the volume of its 64-bit chips in the market little-by-little. Moreover, there are unofficial indications that already in the second quarter next year AMD will produce more AMD64 chips than ordinary AMD Athlon XP processors.

I managed to find the following table representing AMD’s CPU output at Hard Tecs 4U German web-site over here, please have a look:

As you may see, already in this quarter we should expect a lot of Socket 754 Athlon 64 chips in the market. In the first quarter of 2004 there will still be more 32-bit chips, but in the Q2 2004 AMD Athlon 64 will take the volume lead. The prediction is rather optimistic and we still have to find out whether AMD succeeds in executing this aggressive transition.

Unfortunately, the chips are divided by form-factors, not by actual cores. As a result of all the new introductions into AMD’s CPU family next year, the company will have the following processors in its lineup in the first half of 2004:

• AMD Athlon 64 FX “ClawHammer” for Socket 940 package with 1MB L2 cache and dual-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller supporting registered modules. Made using 0.13 micron SOI technology.
• AMD Athlon 64 FX “San Diego” for Socket 939 package with 1MB L2 cache and dual-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller. Made using 90nm SOI technology.
• AMD Athlon 64 “ClawHammer” for Socket 754 package with 1MB L2 cache and single-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller. Made using 0.13 micron SOI technology.
• AMD Athlon 64 Mobile “ClawHammer” for Socket 754 package with 1MB L2 cache, single-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller and PowerNow! technology. Made using 0.13 micron SOI fabrication process.
• AMD Athlon 64 Mobile “Odessa” for Socket 754 package with 1MB L2 cache and PowerNow! technology. Made 90nm SOI fabrication process.
• AMD Athlon XP “Paris” for Socket 754 package with 256KB of L2 cache and single-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller. Made using 0.13 micron SOI technology. Rumoured not to support AMD64 instructions.
• AMD Athlon XP “Dublin” for Socket 754 package with 256KB of L2 cache, single-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller and PowerNow! technology. Made using 0.13 micron SOI fabrication process. Rumoured not to support AMD64 instructions.
• AMD Athlon XP “Victoria” for Socket 754 package with 256KB of L2 cache and single-channel PC3200 DDR SDRAM memory controller. Made using 90nm SOI technology. Rumoured not to support AMD64 instructions.
• AMD Athlon XP “Barton” for Socket A package with 512KB of L2 cache and 333/400MHz EV-6 FSB. Made using 0.13 micron technology.

Based on this presumable product roadmap, we can figure out some quite interesting trends in AMD desktop/mobile CPU strategy next year and even make some predictions on the matter:

• AMD’s Socket 754 will be mostly intended for cost-effective and mobile platforms next year. After the company manages to produce 90nm chips in sufficient quantities, higher-end AMD Athlon 64 FX CPUs will migrate into Socket 939 package. In general, both “Paris” and “Victoria” will compete with Intel Celeron “Northwood-128” and eventually Intel Celeron “Prescott-256” processors.
• Since in the first quarter next year Intel will release its 2.80GHz and 3.00GHz Prescott processors at $218 and $178 price-points and also releases its Prescott 3.60GHz or even 3.80GHz chip in the second quarter, it is clear that AMD Athlon 64 FX CPUs will be more affordable than they are today.
• In case AMD manages to boost the clock-speed of its Socket 754 chips manufactured at 90nm technology, expect the company to release a powerful Socket 754 chip with all x86-64 extensions and 1MB of L2 to compete with these entry-level Prescott processor featuring 1MB of L2 cache in the first half of the year. This is unlikely, though.
• We may also expect yet another mobile processor in the second half of 2004. The chip will be for Socket 939 and with dual-channel memory. It will rival with Intel Prescott processor for DTR systems. However, the general plan may include migration of the existing Socket 754 Athlon 64 Mobile processors into 90nm technology with core-frequency ramp (this plan may be executed only in case the previous paragraph’s target is achieved). We still do not know for sure, what the Mobile Athlon 64 “Odessa” is, hence, no precise predictions at this time.

As you may notice, AMD currently has at least two options for boosting performance of its mainstream microprocessors next year: the company may try to tangibly heighten the clock-speed of its Socket 754 chips with x86-64 (AMD64) and continue to offer this product-line for mainstream and performance-mainstream customers, or to ramp up the production of Socket 939 chips addressing all segments from mainstream to high-end. Currently it is more likely that AMD will in generally concentrate on Socket 939 chips, but will also unveil an affordable 90nm chip in Socket 754 form-factor with AMD64 instructions. At least, the volume of Socket 754 chips in Q2 next year suggests that there will be something else than mobile and cost-effective CPUs in such form-factor.

Please consider that the information is fully unofficial and no AMD representatives commented on the news-story.