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Central processing units (CPUs) with integrated graphics processors will inevitably destroy the market of chipsets with integrated graphics processors (IGPs). But besides that it would also put the market of discrete graphics processors onto the path to decline, according to Jon Peddie Research market tracking agency.

A genuine inflection point is occurring in the PC and related industries, the integration of powerful SIMD graphics processing elements with multi-core, multi-stage scalar x86 CPUs. In so doing the stalwart and ubiquitous IGP - integrated graphics processor, will fade out of existence.

Since the GPU grew in greater complexity than the CPU during the past eight years, exceeding the transistor count, and matching or exceeding the die size of the CPU, many thought the two would never be able to cohabitate.

Moving graphics into the CPUs will be attractive first to the builders of low-cost machines. Intel's Core i5/i3 (Clarkdale and Arrandale), which are embedded processor graphics (EPG) units, were the first wave. Intel's Sandy Bridge will be next generation, while AMD will introduce a massive SIMD GPU array in their fusion processors (Ontario and Llano) which will be the first heterogeneous processor units (HPUs).

The impact in the total PC and related market on discrete GPUs due to the combination of devices being offered with integrated graphics (IGPs, EPGs, and HPUs) will break the historical rise of discrete GPU sales and put the category in decline.

According to JPR, the EPG/HPU will truly revolutionize the PC and associated industries. The amount of computation capability available in the size, weight, power consumption of systems equipped with EPG/HPUs, and for the price they will be offered, will upset the market dynamics like never before, and maybe not since the introduction of the PC.

Tags: AMD, , Intel, ATI, Nvidia, Radeon, Geforce, Llano, Ontario, zacate, JPR, , Business

Discussion

Comments currently: 7
Discussion started: 09/13/10 05:14:14 PM
Latest comment: 09/15/10 02:50:11 PM
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1. 
Discrete graphics might decline very marginally due to the fact that the newer method is marginally faster than the older IGP chipset method, but basically the only real difference is that the IGP is moving to a slightly closer location.

The increase in IGP performance will eat into current discrete performance markets eventually, but that's always been the case regardless of where IGPs are located.

Until IGPs can rival everything discrete cards are capable of there will always be demand for discrete cards it doesn't take a analyst to figure that much out.
0 0 [Posted by: knowom  | Date: 09/13/10 08:38:59 PM]
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2. 
Nvidia should buy BIGfoot NIC and integrate it to bypass CPU overhead time in order to render new frames sooner to reduce hardware lag.

That way they could bypass having the network talk to cpu first before having the cpu telling the gpu what it can do next.

A few milliseconds is all it takes in some case gaming between winning and losing.
0 0 [Posted by: knowom  | Date: 09/13/10 09:09:01 PM]
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3. 
Probably u have right Anton,I have same opinion ,after watch perfomance of AMD Zacate,if we know that Intel also prepare Sandy Bridge and 22 nm I predict also smaller computer case than we have today.
0 0 [Posted by: Blackcode  | Date: 09/14/10 02:37:46 AM]
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- collapse thread

 
I don't think the article is necessarily Anton's opinion. It's a statement by john peddie research.

There already are plenty of computer cases out that have no expansion slots, and are basically only i/o cpu and memory, so you probably should just look at those if your interested.
0 0 [Posted by: cashkennedy  | Date: 09/14/10 09:38:27 AM]
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4. 
Only in the low end and mobile markets. So long there are gamers and professionals the mid and high end will continue just fine. Also this will encourage others to include more features in their low end cards to compete with this new generation IGP. Intel can improve their IGP is they were to use Tile based rendering like what PowerVR had.
0 0 [Posted by: nforce4max  | Date: 09/14/10 09:41:22 AM]
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5. 
I am not sure I buy this argument. Intel still can't design a good GPU with good drivers that actually work in modern games. I am playing Starcraft 1 on GM45 and with latest Patch 1.16 and latest Intel graphics drivers and I am experiencing coloring artifacts in all cut-scene videos and main menus.

I think the main reason integrated graphics are going to increase market share is because notebook sales will continue to grow faster than desktop sales (rather than because they offer better performance). Currently, the majority of people who use integrated graphics (i3/i5) or chipsets with integrated graphics are laptop users - market that generally is less likely to purchase discrete graphics cards in the first place.

Let's tackle Sandy Bridge graphics. Currently its leaked performance barely matches ATI 5450. We also know last generation lower discrete NV graphics, 310M, was already about three times faster than Intel's HD Graphics and typically more than twice as fast as AMD's HD 4200 IGP.

This means that Sandy Bride will be slower than the G310M which is more in line with 5470 not 5450. However, SB graphics will not compete with 310M, but with
GT415M, which just launched. With three times as many cores as G 310M and twice the memory bandwidth, the slowest NV discrete card (415M) will be at least double the performance of 5450/SB.

Nothing has really changed. Before we had Intel chipset graphics that couldn't play games, and now we'll have Intel graphics on the same die that still can't play games even if it's 2x faster (by the time SB launches, we'll have even more demanding games like Medal of Honor, Crysis 2, Dirt 3, etc.). As has been mentioned by knowom, integrated graphics are not going to make much difference since they still won't make games playable.

If one wants to play modern 3D games or do retouching photos in Photoshop CS5 (which also gets a boost in speed from discrete), there's tons of web content moving to GPU acceleration (HTML 5 Video, Flash 10.1, WebGL, and Scalable Vector Graphics for example), and Internet Explorer 9 along with Firefox 4 and Chrome 7 will all have GPU acceleration, then Intel HD will lack in all of these areas.

As far as AMD integrated graphics are concerned, it will only be important if the CPU can compete with Sandy Bridge, which is highly unlikely from a performance perspective. AMD has had far superior graphics than Intel for years now. However, most laptop buyers still chose Core 2 Duo with inferior graphics. This alone is an indication that in the mobile segment, graphics performance is secondary when stacked up against CPU performance and battery life.

Mathematically speaking, integrated graphics HAVE to grow (inevitably shrinking the relative market share of discrete graphics) simply because more mobile devices will be sold. That doesn't mean that discrete graphics will "shrink". It only means the portion of discrete graphics relative to overall graphics will be smaller, not necessarily that sales of discrete graphics will decline. (i.e, one will just grow faster than the other).

Not to mention, discrete graphics will not be standing still either and will continue to increase performance.

BTW, if anyone is curious, Sandy Bridge P67 chipset (socket 1155) won't support SB graphics anyway just like P55 doesn't work with i3/i5 graphics now.

My 2 cents.
0 0 [Posted by: BestJinjo  | Date: 09/14/10 10:19:55 AM]
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6. 
I agree that the introduction of half decent GPU's on the CPU will have an effect on the discrete GPU market, but it would go either way. The entry level GPU's will likely die. People buy them to move a system of unacceptable performance to performance that's okay for specific tasks or casual gaming. The new CPU graphics should be enough for that -- decent video acceleration, basic 3D acceleration that runs games on low settings.

On the other hand, introduction of half decent 3D acceleration as a baseline, even in netbooks, will allow more applications to make use of 3D and so introduce more people to benefits of 3D accelerators, making it possible for the mid range GPU market to grow.

The high end will probably stay as is, since the people buying these cards will always want the fastest thing possible, but it's a small market anyway.

I agree that since most systems are notebooks, the market is declining anyway, but I'm sure that mobile GPU upgrades will eventually arrive.
0 0 [Posted by: ET3D  | Date: 09/15/10 02:50:11 PM]
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