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The recent problems outlined by Advanced Micro Devices as well as the company’s plans for the future accompanied by massive layoffs did not make Wall Street analysts very enthusiastic about the company’s future. In fact, some even believe that AMD is now an “un-investable” company, whereas other think that without sufficient amount of employees the firm will be unable to deliver good products and sell them.

Last week AMD said its Q3 2012 revenue declined to $1.269 billion, or by 25% year-over-year and will also be 32% lower YoY in Q4 2012 as a result of fundamental shifts on the market of personal computers and because of the company’s product mix. AMD said it would cut its workforce by 15% in the fourth quarter of the year, would make consolidation of certain sites and will concentrate on the markets of micro-servers, embedded apps and ultra-mobile entry-level devices. The world’s No. 2 supplier of microprocessors was also not confident when it is able to bring back its margins to normal levels from 31% in the third quarter.

“We have no further confidence that any aspect of our prior structural thesis (margin accretion, cash flow, and balance sheet deleveraging) will play out in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we now see the prospect for structurally lower margins, as well as cash burn [...]. Frankly, the most common adjective that comes up when we discuss the company with clients is, simply, ‘un-investable’. We are now believers,” said Stacy Rasgon, an analyst with Bernstein Research, reports Tech Trader Daily.

Analysts accuse management of the company of mis-execution, noting the company’s recent A-series “Llano” inventory write-off, leaving top- and mid-management as well as engineering personnel and other ongoing problems within AMD. One of the major challenges for the company will occur after another round of layoffs is performed as AMD will have less people to develop and sell the products.

“We now have less confidence in go-forward cash burn given rapidly declining ASPs and management’s new refusal to provide gross margin guidance. Thus, we worry about the magnitude of intended pricing cuts and gross margin impacts as AMD’s cash bleed could intensify. […] Further, management’s ongoing misexecution in our opinion seems to be contributing too (building too much inventory, firing top operational managers, channel misalignment, withdrawing from broad swaths of the market). Finally, the firm announced 15% head-count reductions, which will make it more difficult to engineer and sell competitive products,” wrote Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR Capital, in a note to clients.

Tags: AMD, Business, ATI

Discussion

Comments currently: 15
Discussion started: 10/22/12 02:57:52 PM
Latest comment: 11/16/12 11:04:09 AM
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1. 
Some details are inconsistent, for example it was last year's LLANO inventory that was written-DOWN, not TRINITY inventory that was written-OFF.

But all in all a valid analysis.
3 0 [Posted by: sirroman  | Date: 10/22/12 02:57:52 PM]
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Thanks, corrected!
1 0 [Posted by: Anton  | Date: 10/22/12 05:17:38 PM]
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2. 
AMD's board of directors are too arrogant to fix the issue. AMD kicked out all their best engineers for in place of a automated program to develop CPUs. That is a very high price to pay compared to humans. Humans are literally walking quantum computers that costs $100000+ per year per engineer. The cost of man-made quantum computer is in the 10s of millions of dollars for just one. In order to design something different and better a quantum computer is required this means AMD needs to hire humans to do the job. Hiring humans are far cheaper than buying a man-made quantum computer.

I think Dirk Meyer was a better leader for AMD than Rory Read. Rory Read just sees numbers, but Meyer is engineer that can explain the products to the board of directors.

Bye AMD
2 4 [Posted by: tecknurd  | Date: 10/22/12 03:31:25 PM]
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That has nothing to do with processor development. Both Intel and AMD use processor engineering software, it is impossible for a human to create processors by hand anymore, do you realize how many billion transistors are in a processor now? Intel can afford to waste a few billion producing different prototypes based on what their software produces, but AMD only gets a one shot chance at testing their designs.
3 2 [Posted by: mmstick  | Date: 10/22/12 04:31:29 PM]
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3. 
Is Project Win still alive?
or it's turned into Project Survive?
2 1 [Posted by: Azazel  | Date: 10/22/12 08:38:43 PM]
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4. 
That dumb$**? Rory Read's decision to concentrate on Micro servers, embedded controllers, and embedded APUs is simply a "late to the race" attempt to do what everybody else is doing at the cost of their desktop and full sized server CPUs, APUs, Chipsets, and GPUs.

I have been building strictly AMD systems for many years, but Rory Read's press release hit me in the gut as hard as it did the Wall Street investors.

I have no faith in AMD's "new business plan" and think if implemented will mean the end of AMD.

I think I speak for MANY AMD Builders, that usless AMD fires "Rocky Road" (Rory Dean) and gets back on their prior roadmap, current AMD builders will no longer purchase AMD CPUs, APUs, Chipsets (or OEM boards socketed for AMD) or Video Adapters with AMD/ATI GPUs.

Rory Dean is pushing us to Intel through his "slash and burn" management. He doesn't know ANYTHING about the AMD customer base and is alienating them as well as Wall Street advisors.

I'm on the wall on the graphics cards, but I may just make a total fresh (re)start on all of my PC and HTPC builds and go with NVidia.

It is sad but Intel may have to come to AMDs rescue just to keep them afloat since if they were to go completely insolvent then Intel would be a monopoly (not counting VIA) and the FTC would probably force Intel to divide into smaller companies by division.

God bless,
Fred Dunn
1 0 [Posted by: fdunn  | Date: 10/23/12 05:13:14 PM]
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5. 
Meyer was an effective and revered leader. When Sanders was running the company he was also revered and was considered a strong leader internally.AMD has a culture unlike anyplace I've been either before or since. When Jerry was running the company he made the entire company believe it could achieve anything and the goal was to WIN. Ruiz took over and the goal became about increasing market share to a number that insured profitibility - not a bad thing - but it was counter to AMD's WIN culture. Dirk Meyer reinvigorated the WIN culture when to took over as CEO, and during Ruiz reign most people stayed not because of Ruiz, but because of Meyer. They believed in Dirk and they believed that through his leadership the company would prevail at the end of the day. Enter Bruce Claflin.
Whether Dirk was not aggressive enough or not in the mobiles space remained to be seen. He just wasn't aggressive enough for Claflin. Given the treatment Dirk received after saving the company once I can only conclude that the relationship between the two eroded into something of that of a chicken fight until Claflin convinced a majority of the Board to side with him. Enter Read. Read brings in all the wrong people to run the company. Worse yet he completely discounts and under values the baseline culture of the company which was demonstrated by the people he brought in. His leadership style as has been described to me was all style with no substance, again mirrored by the people he brought in to help run the company. The talent bleed off begins...Mergard, Bergman, Helms, Burgess, etc...when those people left the doors flew open and as one person put it, the only way to have kept people in after the talent bleed off began would've been to bolt and chain the doors closed. Ordinary people can and did achieve extraordinary feats at AMD because they BELIEVED IN THEIR LEADERSHIP. That culture exists at AMD no longer.
0 0 [Posted by: harleyjime  | Date: 11/16/12 11:04:09 AM]
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