With the fact of limited capacity expansion, the cost of advanced immersion scanners and difficulties with the transition to manufacturing processes below 40nm, dynamic random access memory (DRAM) supply bit growth will be limited in 2010 to 2012, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange. But there is a good news for actual memory makers: the price for DRAM is not expected to drop in the next three years.
Global economy has recovered since the second half that and even IMF has predicted 2010 worlwide GDP growth from 3.1% to 3.9%.
DRAMeXchange also expects the new Microsoft Windows 7 to play an the important role in consumer and corporate PC replacement which is likely to boost year-on-year PC market growth to be 12% -17% in the next 3 years.
DRAMeXchange identifies DRAM industry cycle by about 3 years. According to the company’s analysis, DRAM vendors experienced continuous losses in 2001-2003 and consecutive profit from 2004 to 2006, followed by another decline from 2007 to 2009. In 2010, DRAM vendors are set to start to turn to profit and enter another profit cycle. Given the recovering global economy, corporate replacement and consumer stimulation by Windows 7 and other factors DRAMeXchange expects DRAM industry likely enter another positive cycle with anticipated profit in the next 3 years.
There is a problem, though, costly immersion scanners are required for 50nm and below technology migration. Besides DRAM industry, other semiconductor vendors such as TSMC and UMC will also need immersion scanners on technology migration. ASML, a supplier of immersion scanner, has occupied above 90% market share accordingly. With the full utilization status, the time table for delivery becomes uncertain and this situation may delay the technology migration for DRAM vendors.
As for fabrication technology process transition, Samsung is the only vendor can achieve 40nm-class technology in terms of mass production, whreas Hynix and Elpida will do so only in the second quarter of 2010.
DRAMeXchange predicts DRAM supply bit growth rate will be merely 40% given the limited capacity expansion and difficulties associated with transition to new manufacturing processes below 40nm.
Tags: DRAM, DDR3, Business
Comments currently: 2
Discussion started: 03/28/10 11:10:10 PM
Latest comment: 03/29/10 04:22:00 AM
Yep they were really losing money in 2007 and 2009 when prices were 3x higher than lowest in 2008. Memory maker ALWAYS LOOSE MONEY when they dont have profit margins of 600%. It's a sick but true.
And sad that these kind of false briefings make the news. FGS, they didnt even lose any money when the chips were at their lowes prices. They were just get ridding of old 512Mb chip stock piles with moderate 200-250% profit margins.
The real reason why they tend to push margins even above todays 600% is cause most of people (AMD) will need to change their modules in next two years (just like in 2007 when ddr2 prices were still very high, year after AM2 is introduced) for already obsolete DDR3 chips. They dont even tend to push for perfection with LP-DDR3 (1.35V vs 1.5V in standard ddr3) and already seen pretty high 2.4Ghz in 2Gb chips. Because the standard only proclaims needs for up to 2133MHz with crazy CL9 latency. We still have obsolete 1Gb ddr3 chips at pretty high voltages (ddr2 voltages of 1.8V) that could be sold. Just like in times when intel pushed ddr2-400/533 with 128Mb/256Mb chips in time when these standard was just underperforming hype nuisance against good old ddr-400.
Anyway 2012 is ddr4 year and all we could expect to see is ddr4 chips working @ LP-DDR3 voltages (instead proposed 1.2V for ddr4) or even at standard DDR3 1.5V voltage. Remember last year Nehalem issue with old ddr3 working @1.8V and above introduced for c2d and s775. Neither of module manufactures didnt even care to explain why they didnt release their modules inside 1.5V voltage standard, cause they could sell obsolete chips that work as ddr3 but on extremely high voltages even for ddr2 (2.1V). It's just an extremely bad joke.
03/28/10 11:10:10 PM]
Just great ...
03/29/10 04:22:00 AM]
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