According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, DRAM contract price has decreased by 47% since May, but ceased falling in October mainly due to the combination of traditional peak season demand and less shipment pressure on makers with the start of Q4.
Contract price stayed flat in the second half of October, with DDR3 2GB and 4GB average contract price at$10.5 and $19.5, respectively. Chip price remained at approximately $1.06 for DDR3 2Gb. As for the spot market, DDR3 2Gb chip price is still on a slight downtrend; today’s (26 Oct.) average chip price was US$0.92. However, as there have been few concluded deals on the spot market, there is little sign of price recovery in the near future.
From the market perspective, September notebook shipments were strong. PC ODM shipment volume reached 42 million, an 11.2% increase month-on-month. Shipment volume will remain high in October, which is certain to help reduce DRAM inventory levels. As first-tier DRAM manufacturers are under little pressure to ship, it is unlikely that price will decrease in the short term.
Although the market currently remains in a state of oversupply, benefitting from capacity cuts in Q3, TrendForce expects a relatively stable situation in Q4, with bit output increasing by a mere 5% quarter-over-quarter. As for demand, the flooding in Thailand has negatively impacted the HDD industry, increasing the likelihood of unstable PC shipments. This in turn means that it will be more difficult to forecast November DRAM contract price, which will result in more conservative attitudes overall.