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Notebook PCs during the next four years increasingly will adopt muscular quad-core microprocessors, with all types of models bulking up their computing power amid the rising competitive challenge posed by media tablets and smartphones.

Notebook Users Demand Speed

“The increase in notebooks’ computational capabilities through the use of quad-core microprocessors will play a critical role in PC makers’ efforts to remain competitive amid the onslaught of media tablets and smartphones,” said Peter Lin, senior analyst for compute platforms at IHS.

Shipments of notebook PCs configured with quad-core microprocessors will nearly quadruple from 2012 to 2016, according to an IHS iSuppli. Quad-core-equipped notebook shipments will reach 179 million units by 2016, making up 59% of all notebooks that year. That compares to 48 million units this year, representing 22% of all notebooks shipped in 2012.

“While notebooks have greater computing power than either tablets or smartphones, they have lost considerable clout as consumers flock to the flashier gadgets, especially products like the iPad from Apple. Notebook sales have suffered as a result, alarming companies throughout the PC supply chain,” added Mr. Lin.

Much of the growth in notebook quad-core microprocessors will be driven by increasing penetration among value and mainstream notebooks – defined as those priced less than $700 and $1200, respectively. These models are more underpenetrated in terms of quad-core adoption than the high-end notebooks, which are more powerful machines typically priced above $1200.

Multi-Core CPUs Set to Dominate Notebooks in 2015 - 2016

Among value notebooks, quad-core processor penetration will grow from 13% in 2012 to 68% in 2016. By then, value notebooks with older dual-core processors will amount to just 8%. The remaining 24% in 2016 will be split between models with either six-core or eight-core processors.

No value notebooks with six- or eight-core capability will be available before 2015, demonstrating how rare these are on the market. Even for the more powerful mainstream and performance models, six or eight-core processors will start appearing only in the next two years at very small percentages, before gaining greater traction in 2015 and 2016.

For mainstream notebooks, quad-core processor penetration will climb from 28% in 2012 to 49% in 2016. The penetration rate by 2016 for mainstream models is less than in the peak year of 2015, but only because six-core units move up in 2016. By then, there no longer will be any mainstream models with dual-core processors; all units will have processors that are quad-core or higher.

The same pattern applies for performance notebooks, with quad-core penetration already at a high 41% in 2012. Penetration peaks in 2014 at 71%, after which performance models with six-core and eight-core units also make their appearance on the market, driving down quad-core market share.

16% of Laptops to Feature Blu-Ray Drives in 2016

As more notebook PCs become empowered with quad-core processing ability, a small portion of them will also be featuring built-in Blu-ray optical drives. Shipments of notebook PCs with Blu-ray disks will amount to 49 million units by 2016, equivalent to 16% of all shipped notebooks by then. Those numbers compare to 14 million units by the end of this year, or 6% of the total notebook market.

The rise in Blu-ray-equipped notebooks will be due to two factors – the continued reduction in the costs of optical disk drives on the one hand; and the growing acceptance of high-definition movie formats on the other. The Blu-ray penetration rate among notebooks will climb even though consumers now favor video downloads to ever-bigger hard drives, as well as streaming direct from video sources. If not for those factors, Blu-ray adoption in notebooks would be even higher.

All notebooks of the future will also be running 64-bit operating systems. Fully 100% of PCs – notebooks and desktops alike – will have the capability by 2016, equivalent to some 434 million units. This compares to 68% by the end of 2012, or 233 million units.

Tags: Lenovo, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP, Hewlett-Packard, Acer, AMD, Intel, Sandy Bridge, Ivy Bridge, Trinity, Lllano, Haswell, Richland

Discussion

Comments currently: 19
Discussion started: 11/30/12 04:36:30 PM
Latest comment: 12/02/12 10:10:44 AM
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1. 
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0 5 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 11/30/12 04:36:30 PM]
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2. 
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1 5 [Posted by: maroon1  | Date: 11/30/12 05:04:41 PM]
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- collapse thread

 
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0 5 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 11/30/12 05:30:54 PM]
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Maybe for you CPU power is all that matters, on my side I don't want to get screwed up by the crappy IGP in SB or the lack of support of graphics drivers in general, nor to get my battery drained by a dGPU powerplant.
4 1 [Posted by: Martian  | Date: 11/30/12 06:22:13 PM]
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2 6 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 11/30/12 07:38:32 PM]
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Let's make it clear first, I answered the same comment you did, not yours.
Other than that, Intel abandones everything after a year, except those things (Atom's PowerVR IGPs) they haven't ever supported.
I really don't know what do you want with Linux support, which is even worse then Windows support on both sides and not even official on Intel's.
I plan on using my laptop for more than a year, so Intel is not an option for me, I'm fine with a 2-4x faster Radeon IGP which is going to have mainline support for another 2-3 years.
2 1 [Posted by: Martian  | Date: 11/30/12 07:59:16 PM]
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You can't be more wrong in that comparison,
you are comparing 2 35W units, with the apu bearing the weight of a fairly good gpu that draws a bigger portion power than that weak hd3000.
[sarcasm]you know what could be better? a cpu without any gpu onboard.[/sarcasm]
in addition in the apu you get full support for dx,openGL,glsl,openCL apis and a decent driver in windows and a relatively good in linux(although fglrx needs more developement)
and for that iGP you don't get any openCL http://software.intel.com...encl-release-notes/#2(you get opencl only through simd, which means only the cpu supports it) and the rest are not so stable, who can forget the compatibility lists of supported games in the igps

here are the benchmark facts which compare 3770k and fx8350 with an unbiased compiler/suite http://openbenchmarking.o...lt/1210227-RA-AMDFX835085
we are not 11 anymore to compare clocks.
3 2 [Posted by: Yorgos  | Date: 11/30/12 10:29:35 PM]
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"And 3770 is overall much better processors given its vast advantage in single to quad threaded tasks."

FX8350 costs $195
i7-3770K costs $325

In fact, a smart purchaser who wants a good multi-threaded CPU will save some $ and grab the $169 FX8320 and overclock it. Then you have $156 left over for a nice SSD. FX8320 + 128GB SSD will crush i7 3770K with a mechanical drive. Oh, I forgot you ignored price in your comparison...

Your comparison is misleading. FX8350 competes with i5-3570K not 3770K. AMD has no competitor to i7.
7 3 [Posted by: BestJinjo  | Date: 12/01/12 09:18:26 AM]
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0 5 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 12/01/12 02:56:28 PM]
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1 6 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 11/30/12 08:30:33 PM]
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The phantom down voter is Avon the coward troll, no doubt. He must leave this site and find a real job like sweeping streets. Maybe he'll then get a reference to apply for his dream job - cleaning the restrooms at Intel HQ.
5 6 [Posted by: linuxlowdown  | Date: 12/01/12 08:50:52 AM]
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I don't downvote people because they have different opinions.
3 1 [Posted by: Martian  | Date: 12/01/12 05:45:45 PM]
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4. 
Really? Six-core desktop processors for the mainstream aren't even anywhere on the horizon. What are the chances we'll see them in laptops within the given timeframe.

And don't say AMD. They seem to have their own definition of what constitutes a core.
1 1 [Posted by: mganai  | Date: 12/01/12 03:40:45 PM]
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Ever heard of AMD Phenom II X6?
1 1 [Posted by: xenocea  | Date: 12/02/12 06:38:56 AM]
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1 4 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 12/02/12 08:55:48 AM]
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5. 
As usual we see the haters and the clueless having a pissfest that resolves nothing.

Quad core CPUs are already popular. They will evolve like other X86 CPUs. Of course laptops will need to increase in performance over the next four years to stay relevent and that is where APUs will become exclusive. Every new version of Windoze requires a 4x increase in CPU performance just to run the crapware O/S. This ain't rocket science. This story is really a lot of hot air about nothing.
4 2 [Posted by: beenthere  | Date: 12/02/12 09:30:52 AM]
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1 4 [Posted by: sanity  | Date: 12/02/12 10:10:44 AM]
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