Notebook PCs during the next four years increasingly will adopt muscular quad-core microprocessors, with all types of models bulking up their computing power amid the rising competitive challenge posed by media tablets and smartphones.
Notebook Users Demand Speed
“The increase in notebooks’ computational capabilities through the use of quad-core microprocessors will play a critical role in PC makers’ efforts to remain competitive amid the onslaught of media tablets and smartphones,” said Peter Lin, senior analyst for compute platforms at IHS.
Shipments of notebook PCs configured with quad-core microprocessors will nearly quadruple from 2012 to 2016, according to an IHS iSuppli. Quad-core-equipped notebook shipments will reach 179 million units by 2016, making up 59% of all notebooks that year. That compares to 48 million units this year, representing 22% of all notebooks shipped in 2012.
“While notebooks have greater computing power than either tablets or smartphones, they have lost considerable clout as consumers flock to the flashier gadgets, especially products like the iPad from Apple. Notebook sales have suffered as a result, alarming companies throughout the PC supply chain,” added Mr. Lin.
Much of the growth in notebook quad-core microprocessors will be driven by increasing penetration among value and mainstream notebooks – defined as those priced less than $700 and $1200, respectively. These models are more underpenetrated in terms of quad-core adoption than the high-end notebooks, which are more powerful machines typically priced above $1200.
Multi-Core CPUs Set to Dominate Notebooks in 2015 - 2016
Among value notebooks, quad-core processor penetration will grow from 13% in 2012 to 68% in 2016. By then, value notebooks with older dual-core processors will amount to just 8%. The remaining 24% in 2016 will be split between models with either six-core or eight-core processors.
No value notebooks with six- or eight-core capability will be available before 2015, demonstrating how rare these are on the market. Even for the more powerful mainstream and performance models, six or eight-core processors will start appearing only in the next two years at very small percentages, before gaining greater traction in 2015 and 2016.
For mainstream notebooks, quad-core processor penetration will climb from 28% in 2012 to 49% in 2016. The penetration rate by 2016 for mainstream models is less than in the peak year of 2015, but only because six-core units move up in 2016. By then, there no longer will be any mainstream models with dual-core processors; all units will have processors that are quad-core or higher.
The same pattern applies for performance notebooks, with quad-core penetration already at a high 41% in 2012. Penetration peaks in 2014 at 71%, after which performance models with six-core and eight-core units also make their appearance on the market, driving down quad-core market share.
16% of Laptops to Feature Blu-Ray Drives in 2016
As more notebook PCs become empowered with quad-core processing ability, a small portion of them will also be featuring built-in Blu-ray optical drives. Shipments of notebook PCs with Blu-ray disks will amount to 49 million units by 2016, equivalent to 16% of all shipped notebooks by then. Those numbers compare to 14 million units by the end of this year, or 6% of the total notebook market.
The rise in Blu-ray-equipped notebooks will be due to two factors – the continued reduction in the costs of optical disk drives on the one hand; and the growing acceptance of high-definition movie formats on the other. The Blu-ray penetration rate among notebooks will climb even though consumers now favor video downloads to ever-bigger hard drives, as well as streaming direct from video sources. If not for those factors, Blu-ray adoption in notebooks would be even higher.
All notebooks of the future will also be running 64-bit operating systems. Fully 100% of PCs – notebooks and desktops alike – will have the capability by 2016, equivalent to some 434 million units. This compares to 68% by the end of 2012, or 233 million units.
Tags: Lenovo, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP, Hewlett-Packard, Acer, AMD, Intel, Sandy Bridge, Ivy Bridge, Trinity, Lllano, Haswell, Richland
Comments currently:
19
Discussion started: 11/30/12 04:36:30 PM
Latest comment: 12/02/12 10:10:44 AM
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1.
"“The increase in notebooks’ computational capabilities through the use of quad-core microprocessors will play a critical role in PC makers’ efforts to remain competitive amid the onslaught of media tablets and smartphones,” said Peter Lin, senior analyst for compute platforms at IHS."
:grin: if Peter Lin thinks it will take four years till 2016 to get to [adequate] quad-core, and not be dominated by Hex and Octo core mobile SOC's by then , then he probably needs sacking. strike 1.
as for the 64bit OS , has he been asleep for a few years, virtually everything x86 is already 64bit OS ready and mostly running that now off the shelf. strike 2.
regarding the "Blu-ray-equipped notebooks" if theres still no 1 TB (dual layer) drives and cheap media by then when real 4K video should be in full swing , and 8K starting to be commercialized ready for 2020 on mass, then Blu-ray has a serious problem.strike 3,and he's out.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 11/30/12 04:36:30 PM]
2.
All what matters is how the CPU performs.
For example, i5 2410m beats A10-4600m (fastest AMD mobile CPU) even in
multi-threaded benchmarks
http://www.anandtech.com/...ew-a10-4600m-a-new-hope/5
Keep in mind that i5 2410m is an outdated sandy bridge CPU. i5 3210m which replaces this processor has 200MHz higher clock + higher IPC
The point is that dual core could beat a quad core even multi-threaded tasks . Higher IPC, high clock speed and HT technology could offset the advantage of two extra cores. And thats one of the reason why mobile i5 beats mobile A10 APU even in multi-threaded tasks
Similarly, i7 3770 beats FX-8150 in pretty much any multi-threaded benchmark. And it performs about on par with FX-8350 (Even though i7 3770 has lower clock speed than both). And 3770 is overall much better processors given its vast advantage in single to quad threaded tasks.
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Posted by: maroon1
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Date: 11/30/12 05:04:41 PM]
+ expand thread (7 answers)
- collapse thread
maroon1: i use [adequate] quad-core explicitly for several reasons, not least the fact that im not the one that needs convincing that current Intel Integer SIMD is far better than the AMD's brand new Integer x2 blocks in the latest cores, clearly it is given x264 remarks and proof based on devs comments etc.
and in that vain , ill also point out that "High Efficiency Video Coding draft video compression standard, a successor to H.264/MPEG-4 AVC (Advanced Video Coding)" is due to be ratified by the end of 2013 i think is the rough timeline.
and the fact the x264 dev's have looked at and evaluated it stating....
basically paraphrased: it's going to take a massive load of new CPU cycles accommodating the new algorithm's for even 1080P encoding/decoding never mind the 4K and 8K video "Main 10 profile" (allows for a bit depth of 8-bits to 10-bits per color)
so that means it will have to be a very good [adequate] quad-core to ffmpeg/VLC etc software playback full HEVC 4K video, and more likely at least a Hex or better Octo core mobile SOC to actually re-encode to the visual quality you have come to expect from x264 at near real time.
all these people that keep saying "Quad core is enough processing power" are in for a bit of a shock when they try to decode never mind actually Encode highest quality HEVC video at full Mbit/s on their 3 year old QUAD PC.
sure, there maybe 4K/8K hardware assisted encode/decode blocks in Intel SOC by then, and unlikely based on past experience a real cross platform AMD encode hardware assisted code block option, and you still loose visual quality with those HW blocks.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 11/30/12 05:30:54 PM]
Maybe for you CPU power is all that matters, on my side I don't want to get screwed up by the crappy IGP in SB or the lack of support of graphics drivers in general, nor to get my battery drained by a dGPU powerplant.
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Posted by: Martian
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Date: 11/30/12 06:22:13 PM]
Martian, i don't quite follow you there !
GSUBTC "Integrated graphics processors (IGP)" in sandy bridge , well if you don't already have the older Intel core ( i can only assume you don't here)
then you have the option to use the current Ivy bridge and its separate more efficient Ivy Bridge direct interconnect rather than the usual PCI-E that external discrete Graphics Processors use.
http://semiaccurate.com/2...ll-cpu-more-details-leak/
clearly indicates that future Intel cores + internal gfx where HEVC will arrive in that time frame are getting a much improved throughput in the gfx area's.
and again i don't follow when you say "lack of support of graphics drivers in general"
taking a look at the usual OSS drivers lists it seems clear Intel are ahead on the features actually implemented there
http://www.x.org/wiki/IntelGraphicsDriver with far more "Done"
http://nouveau.freedesktop.org/wiki/FeatureMatrix quite a few "TODO's" theres but thats not really surprising given the lack of openness in NV's part so far.
and finally
http://www.x.org/wiki/RadeonFeature seems a shame AMD cant seem to get OSS S.Islands drivers even half finished after a year with massive "TODO's" there.
so its not like there are no better HW and SW options for 2013/14 timeline in the Intel pipeline, the AMD OSS manager doesn't hold much hope for fast improvements on that latest southern islands HW front, matching semiaccurate's view on the windows side, maybe im missing something official you know and can point me to ?
and i do assume you actually want to watch HEVC video at full speed when it arrives, how do you intend doing that with today's/the next AMD Notebook kit.
i like enough CPU power to actually work as specified and watching the new HEVC video seems like a generic thing must end consumers would want to do in 2013/14 etc even when mobile, and a good proportion would want to re-encode (preferably in real time or better) their own content too.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 11/30/12 07:38:32 PM]
Let's make it clear first, I answered the same comment you did, not yours.
Other than that, Intel abandones everything after a year, except those things (Atom's PowerVR IGPs) they haven't ever supported.
I really don't know what do you want with Linux support, which is even worse then Windows support on both sides and not even official on Intel's.
I plan on using my laptop for more than a year, so Intel is not an option for me, I'm fine with a 2-4x faster Radeon IGP which is going to have mainline support for another 2-3 years.
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Posted by: Martian
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Date: 11/30/12 07:59:16 PM]
You can't be more wrong in that comparison,
you are comparing 2 35W units, with the apu bearing the weight of a fairly good gpu that draws a bigger portion power than that weak hd3000.
[sarcasm]you know what could be better? a cpu without any gpu onboard.[/sarcasm]
in addition in the apu you get full support for dx,openGL,glsl,openCL apis and a decent driver in windows and a relatively good in linux(although fglrx needs more developement)
and for that iGP you don't get any openCL
http://software.intel.com...encl-release-notes/#2(you get opencl only through simd, which means only the cpu supports it) and the rest are not so stable, who can forget the compatibility lists of supported games in the igps
here are the benchmark facts which compare 3770k and fx8350 with an unbiased compiler/suite
http://openbenchmarking.o...lt/1210227-RA-AMDFX835085
we are not 11 anymore to compare clocks.
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Posted by: Yorgos
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Date: 11/30/12 10:29:35 PM]
"And 3770 is overall much better processors given its vast advantage in single to quad threaded tasks."
FX8350 costs $195
i7-3770K costs $325
In fact, a smart purchaser who wants a good multi-threaded CPU will save some $ and grab the $169 FX8320 and overclock it. Then you have $156 left over for a nice SSD. FX8320 + 128GB SSD will crush i7 3770K with a mechanical drive. Oh, I forgot you ignored price in your comparison...
Your comparison is misleading. FX8350 competes with i5-3570K not 3770K. AMD has no competitor to i7.
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Posted by: BestJinjo
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Date: 12/01/12 09:18:26 AM]
BestJinjo, while thats nice, the thread subject matter is
"Quad_Core_Microprocessors_to_Dominate_Notebooks_in_2016"
Not "Workstation-Class Hardware"
in the case of the strictly Workstation-Class Vishera FX8350 with it's "Integrated graphics processor (IGP)" removed so not much chance it will ever be used in a Notebook at any price.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 12/01/12 02:56:28 PM]
3.
" Martian:Let's make it clear " yeah i know, just wondered...
LOL , i noticed the phantom down voter has made his pass over this thread, he's a bit late though, must have been busy
, its a bit cruel down voting Martian though being an good AMD user that doesn't judge Intel users AFAIKS, ill up vote you to balance it out.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 11/30/12 08:30:33 PM]
+ expand thread (2 answers)
- collapse thread
The phantom down voter is Avon the coward troll, no doubt. He must leave this site and find a real job like sweeping streets. Maybe he'll then get a reference to apply for his dream job - cleaning the restrooms at Intel HQ.
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Posted by: linuxlowdown
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Date: 12/01/12 08:50:52 AM]
I don't downvote people because they have different opinions.
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Posted by: Martian
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Date: 12/01/12 05:45:45 PM]
4.
Really? Six-core desktop processors for the mainstream aren't even anywhere on the horizon. What are the chances we'll see them in laptops within the given timeframe.
And don't say AMD. They seem to have their own definition of what constitutes a core.
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Posted by: mganai
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Date: 12/01/12 03:40:45 PM]
+ expand thread (2 answers)
- collapse thread
Ever heard of AMD Phenom II X6?
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Posted by: xenocea
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Date: 12/02/12 06:38:56 AM]
mganai,given the thread subject matter is
"Quad_Core_Microprocessors_to_Dominate_Notebooks_in_2016"
and assuming you are referring to this
"through the use of quad-core microprocessors will play a
critical role in PC makers’ efforts to remain competitive amid
the onslaught of media tablets and smartphones,” said Peter Lin"
in your interpretation, then define PC..
(just run with this thought for a minute)
that PC meaning would be the definitive initials for "Personal Computer" and you cant get more personal than an ARM Cortex device you currently carry around in your pocket every where you go and wont let others borrow as it's that personal to you.
"desktop" PC doesn't really come into it given the "Notebook" context, but then again lets run with it,
does a device sat "ON" or under your desk count, perhaps.
such as a
http://trimslice.com/web/,
how about the usual celeron or AMD Via Geode low power device running OSS , are they a PC, sure.
or how about the HEX core ARM Toshiba TV potentially sat on your desk right now.
http://www.electronicswee...e-ARM-A9-TV-processor.htm
now your getting murky
put this Hex core in a new open OSS trimslice type device, is that then a PC,sure
theres also the GeForce Maxwell fit's in the murky territory here as they will also have many Arm cortex cores included as part of the gfx core cluster on SOC not the CPU side of the bus, its not clear if they will also include the generic NEON (integer) SIMD in that section , but if so that to looks interesting, IF they Do It Right...
for sure all the vendor's that use ARM, MediaTek, Qualcomm, Samsung and TI etc, under the "heterogeneous system alliance" (HSA) banner, all have 6 and/or 8 real core designs waiting in the pipeline
(just wait and see around Jan/Feb 2013, i cant obviously link you a URL yet OC other than the MediaTek and networking vendors you already know about now)
and the current quads can do 2K decode in hardware for video so getting closer to that new HEVC generic video playback at least until that Samsung Octo core Mali T6xx GFX arrives in products you can buy etc.
and OC we already know AMD will provide some clustered Cortex in their offerings by 2014 and if their HSA partners are doing mass produced generic $20 a pop 6 and 8+ cores by the end of 2014 then they are not going to just (well it is AMD so they might...) sell you less core in their SOC offerings.
Oh and remember it would only take one so called "mainstream" Motherboard vendor to
put one or [preferably] more of these multi core Cortex [64bit] SOC in a reasonably priced board and you would probably get a mass of others following suit if its profitable...and grows the new markets.
don't you find it interesting that ARM cortex has gone from "mono phones" to "dual core phones and tablets" to main stream "quad core phones,tablets and direct to alpha test 32bit Co-Location servers to try and buy as a precursor for real many core 64bit" in a relatively short time frame
and theres this obvious big gap in the global market right where one would want to buy a "many core"
64bit ARM cortex thats just screaming to be filled by a vendor for mass profit's ... you [the reader] don't actually believe Vendors just missed that by accident..
so don't be surprised when it happens
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 12/02/12 08:55:48 AM]
5.
As usual we see the haters and the clueless having a pissfest that resolves nothing.
Quad core CPUs are already popular. They will evolve like other X86 CPUs. Of course laptops will need to increase in performance over the next four years to stay relevent and that is where APUs will become exclusive. Every new version of Windoze requires a 4x increase in CPU performance just to run the crapware O/S. This ain't rocket science. This story is really a lot of hot air about nothing.
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Posted by: beenthere
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Date: 12/02/12 09:30:52 AM]
+ expand thread (1 answer)
- collapse thread
"beenthere:Windoze requires a 4x increase in CPU performance just to run"
windows 8 didn't , in fact pretty much static hence why the Motherboard vendors and OEM's cant seem to sell many as upgrades this holiday season without a lot of free extra's or discount's to the consumer cutting into their profits, but thats mostly beside the point in this Notebooks thread.
Moore's Law + May's Law run's in parallel here OC, except apparently with this latest ARM Cortex as its ramping up quicker than mores law ATM with fast transitions through mono>dual>quad>hex/octo sooner rather than later helping May's Law to balance things out in these new markets.
Moore's Law: states that processor speeds, or overall processing power for computers will double every two years.
May's Law: states that Software efficiency halves every 18 months, compensating Moore's Law.
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Posted by: sanity
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Date: 12/02/12 10:10:44 AM]
[1-5]
Notebook PCs during the next four years increasingly will adopt muscular quad-core microprocessors, with all types of models bulking up their computing power amid the rising competitive challenge posed by media tablets and smartphones.
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