Analyst Expects Three Million Microsoft Kinect Sensors to Be Sold This Holiday Season

Microsoft Kinect in Production, Adequate Quantities Expected at Launch - Analyst

by Anton Shilov
07/21/2010 | 10:15 PM

Microsoft Kinect may become the most popular add-on for the Xbox 360 console, according to an anlayst from Lazard Capital Markets, who also believes that the motion sensor is already in production and there would be enough of them for the launch later this year.


"We believe that Kinect units are already in production and should be available in adequate quantities for the November launch. We continue to expect that roughly three million units of Kinect will be sold worldwide in 4Q. [...] Over time, we also anticipate that motion sensors will show up in connected TVs, living room PCs, set-top boxes and other consumer devices," said Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Lazard Capital Markets, in a note to clients, reports Business Insider web-site.

Even though the analyst believes that sales of Kinect motion sensor will be high, he also believes that the $149 price-point is too high for the device and the "sweet spot" could be $99. Nonetheless, even being a little overpriced, Kinect is projected to attract new gamers to the platform.

"Kinect should broaden Xbox appeal. Games utilizing the Kinect sensor will initially include fitness, dance, sports and kart racing, suggesting that Microsoft is targeting a casual audience. Additionally, Microsoft is pricing many Kinect games at $49 – below the standard $59 price point for Xbox software, but competitive with Wii games. While there are still questions regarding the use of motion controls with core titles (e.g., first-person shooters), we see Kinect as a likely driver of accelerating unit growth for the Xbox," the analyst is reported to have said.

Considering the fact that sales of games for hardcore gamers are more or less stable, it is crucial for game console vendors to renew interest towards video games by casual audience, which is exactly what the motion sensor previously code-named Natal is aimed to do.

"We believe that Kinect, along with Sony’s Move and Nintendo’s 3DS handheld, are new potential catalysts to drive renewed interest in video games," Mr. Sebastian concluded.