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Post to SlashdotAt the very end of August first-tier mainboard makers reported strong demand on their production caused by their partners among PC-vendors. It is expected that four biggest manufacturers experienced 9% month-on-month growth in August and now wait for another 7% boost in September. Notebook shipments also started to improve in August. On the whole, the Fall is approaching and we see the traditional seasonal rebound in computer shipments. Since all the computers use DRAM memory, the growth on the PC market means growth on the DRAM market as well.
Worth to mention that DDR DRAM shipments has grown significantly about 32% from 117.98 million units to 155.96 million units in 128Mb equivalents, while SDR DRAM and RDRAM shipments dropped from 198.78 million units to 171.08 million units and from 16 million units to 15.55 million units accordingly. Total monthly output increased nearly 3% from 332.76 million units to 342.59 million units. The demand on SDR memory gradually descends, while DDR becomes more and more popular. As a result, SDR spot price continue to fall, while DDR spot price slightly ascends.
| DDR DRAM Spot Prices at DRAMeXchange 36th Week | ||||||
| Item | Spot Price Average | Daily Change | Weekly Average | Weekly Trend | Monthly Average | Monthly Trend |
| DDR333; 256Mb (32Mx8) | $7.34 | Down 0.54% | $7.21 | Up 2.22% | $7.11 | Up 1.41% |
| DDR266; 256Mb (32Mx8) | $6.73 | - | $6.62 | Up 1.61% | $6.50 | Up 1.85% |
| DDR266; 256Mb (16Mx16) | $7.16 | Up 0.84% | $6.98 | Up 1.72% | $6.96 | Up 0.29% |
| DDR266; 128Mb (16Mx8) | $3.42 | Down 1.44% | $3.42 | Up 1.17% | 3.27 | Up 4.59% |
| SDR DRAM Spot Prices at DRAMeXchange 36th Week | ||||||
| Item | Spot Price Avg. | Daily Change | Weekly Average | Weekly Trend | Monthly Average | Monthly Trend |
| SDR133; 256Mb (16Mx16) | $3.54 | - | $3.54 | - | $3.78 | Down 6.35% |
| SDR133; 256Mb (32Mx8) | $2.76 | Down 2.12% | $2.87 | Down 2.79% | $3.41 | Down 15.84% |
| SDR133; 128Mb (16Mx8) | $1.65 | Down 1.66% | $1.63 | Down 0.61% | $1.80 | Down 9.44% |
| SDR133; 128Mb (8Mx16) | $2.00 | - | $2.00 | - | $2.19 | Down 8.68 |
DRAM contract prices at the moment cannot keep up with the spot prices, thus, DDR costs are a little bit lower for those, who buy DRAM on contract basis. It is not going to last long, I suppose, and the prices should go up in a week or two provided that the spot prices climb up.
| DRAM Contract Prices at DRAMeXchange August Second Half | ||||
| Item | Highest Price | Trend | Lowest Price | Trend |
| DDR266; 256Mb | $6.75 | Up 0.74% | $6.25 | Up 4.16% |
| DDR266; 128Mb | $3.40 | - | $3.15 | Up 5.00% |
| SDR133; 256Mb | $5.00 | Down 9.09% | $4.25 | Down 15.00% |
| SDR133; 128Mb | $2.50 | Down 9.09% | $2.15 | Down 4.44% |
Although the destiny of DRAM now looks better than a month ago, it is still far for this industry to become confident on the future. Intel predicts really modest growth in the third quarter 2002 (see this news-story), other industry analysts like IDC or Dataquest do not believe there will be sold considerably more PCs in 2002 compared to 2001.
All in all, we see the seasonal demand and price increase. Since the market is flooded with PC-components, there should not be any price shocks this year in general and DDR DRAM prices are not going to skyrocket in particular.
