We have already reported that Intel introduced a few tangible changes to its plans, having postponed the launching of Pentium 4 processor based on the 0.09micron Prescott core to a later date. Instead, they are planning to introduce the new 800MHz bus in early 2003. Today I am ready to share some additional information about Intel’s future plans in the desktop processor market.

So, the first thing worth mentioning here is the fact that there won’t be any new CPUs for desktops from Intel until Q2 2003. The fastest model in the family will remain a solution working at 3.06GHz, and the fastest Celeron CPU will be the one supporting 2.2GHz core clock rate.

However, Q2 2003 will bring about pretty significant changes to the desktop processor market. You shouldn’t forget that it is exactly at that time that AMD is expected to start shipping its x86-64 Athlon 64 processors. This seems to be the No. 1 reason for Intel to strike back, so that on the one hand, their response to AMD could speed up the existing Pentium 4 processor family and on the other, prove a pretty efficient marketing move. This response will be exactly the launch in Q2 2003 of Pentium 4 processors intended to support 800MHz bus (200MHz Quad Pumped Bus).

It is interesting that Intel will move not only the fastest Pentium 4 processors in the family to the new 800MHz bus, but all models available in the product range by then. In other words, in Q2 next year they will launch not only Pentium 4 3.2GHz working with 800Mhz bus, but also Pentium 4 CPUs working at 3GHz, 2.8GHz and 2.4GHz supporting the same faster bus. Another unexpected thing will be the Hyper-Threading technology support implemented in all the CPUs intended for 800MHz bus.

This way, starting from Q2 2003 Intel will have four types of Pentium 4 processors with different features available in the desktop market. They are:

• Pentium 4 with 512KB L2 cache and 400MHz bus, no Hyper-Threading support. These CPUs will be discontinued within next year.
• Pentium 4 with 512KB L2 cache and 533MHz bus, no Hyper-Threading support. Next year these processors will be represented only by the models working at 2GHz, 2.26GHz, 2.4GHz, 2.53GHz, 2.66GHz and 2.8GHz.
• Pentium 4 with 512KB L2 cache, 533MHz bus and Hyper-Threading support. There is only one CPU like that now and it will remain the only one next year: Pentium 4 3.06GHz.
• New Pentium 4 with 512KB L2 cache, 800MHz bus and Hyper-Threading support. These processors will start shipping in Q2 2003 and there will be the following models available: 3.2GHz, 3GHz, 2.8GHz, 2.6GHz and 2.4GHz.

Moreover, in the Q4 2003 the already mentioned processors will get company: Intel will launch 0.09micron Prescott based solutions. The newcomers will be also designed to work with 800MHz bus and will support Hyper-Threading technology. However, their L2 cache memory will be increased up to 1MB. The first Prescott based Pentium 4 processors are expected to work at about 3.2-3.4GHz.

According to the info I have at hand here, Intel is going to be quite aggressive on introducing the new faster 800MHz bus. If in Q1 2003, 55% of all Pentium 4 CPUs shipping will be still designed for 400MHz bus and only 45% of them – for 533MHz bus, then in Q2 the share of those working with 400MHz bus will drop down to 35% and the new solutions with 800MHz bus will take up the free 20%. In Q3 Intel will be shipping up to 35% of the CPUs for the new 800MHz bus already, while those for the older 400MHz bus will occupy only 20% of the shipments. By the last quarter of next year the share of Pentium 4 processors for 800MHz bus will reach 60%, 35% will belong to Pentium 4 CPUs with 533MHz bus and only 5% of the processors shipped will be those working with 400MHz bus.

To support the new CPUs with faster 800MHz bus Intel will launch new Canterwood and Springdale chipsets working with dual-channel DDR266/DDR333/DDR400 memory. Intel expects the transfer of its CPUs to faster 800MHz bus to result into a significant performance improvement. According to their preliminary estimates, the new CPUs with 800MHz bus and Hyper-Threading technology will prove noticeably faster in multi-task environments than their predecessors working at the same core clock frequency. Namely they will be about 43% faster than the CPUs with 533MHz bus and without Hyper-Threading and 17% faster than Pentium 4 CPUs with 533MHz bus and with the Hyper-Threading supported.

As far as Celeron processor family is concerned, Intel has no intentions so far to make any serious changes to it next year. Intel Celeron 2.3GHz will be announced in Q2 2003, Celeron 2.4GHz – in Q3 2003, and in Q4 its core clock will reach 2.5GHz. All Celeron processors will work with 400MHz bus and will feature 128KB L2 cache.