by Anton Shilov
01/10/2005 | 09:17 AM
Analyst firm Petrov Group released a document claiming that Intel-Microsoft dominance in the PC space may vanish, as Linux operating system and processors from IBM, e.g., PowerPC, are gaining popularity in the next five years.
“We believe that this time the potential threat to the formidable Microsoft-Intel PC duopoly is credible due to a combination of technological discontinuity, major changes in market requirements, and the arsenal of assembled technologies, alliances, and business approaches of another leading firm, IBM,” said Boris Petrov, managing partner of the Petrov Group.
According to Petrov, the next generation of Linux PCs does not need to be powered by an Intel chip, while market shares in large emerging markets may be primarily determined by domestic content that does not come from Microsoft. One can envision a situation in which the doors to such markets may be effectively closed to Wintel-based solutions. Additionally, the company describes how IBM's technology can sneak into non-PC designs, e.g., "smart" consumer electronics and game consoles, such as Microsoft Xbox 2 and Sony PlayStation3.
Petrov Group reckons PC industry transformations, for example, PC products becoming network services, PCs evolving into a multitude of tailored devices (by application, wearable, very thin clients), or other outcomes that may evolve beyond 2010. Currently research firm explores various scenarios that may lower Intel-Microsoft dominance in the industry, such as IBM Cellular Computing scenario, Linux PC scenario and Power Architecture proliferation scenario. Still, the firm claims that not all the scenarios are likely to come alive.
The new white paper from Petrov Group, titled “Vanishing Wintel Dominance – Possible and Probable Scenarios,” is available free of charge at requests.